An Analyst On Crack: Apple To Sell 45 Million iPhones?

An analyst is predicting that Apple (APPL) will sell 45 million iPhones in 2009. He gives the following reasons:

• By introducing a 3G iPhone within the next 3 to 6 months
• By offering a family of 2 to 3 iPhones — including lower-priced models selling for $200 to $300 — by Jan 2009 at the latest
• By entering new countries, effectively doubling the addressable market every year for the next two years
• By adding new features, such as games (Tiger Woods Golf, played by swinging the iPhone?) and remote purchases (Starbucks lattes without the wait?) starting in June

I think this analyst’s predictions are a bit on the optimistic side, in my opinion, and I will hit on two reasons why: first, in the U.S. market, the iPhone is only available through AT&T (though an unlocked iPhone will work within any GSM network, say, T-Mobile, but not Verizon), which seriously limits its appeal; and second, the barriers of entry are so low, there are scores of competitors who are bringing out clones of the iPhone, and at much lower prices. And then there’s Google…