Obama Wins Nomination.

Not surprisingly, Obama has won the Democratic nomination for president - unofficially. Clinton has yet to concede, but knowing her modus operandi, she's probably angling for VP.

I'm disappointed it has come to this. I consider politics to be a blood sport, the political equivalent of the MMA. So to see the event end so early has cheated me of the enjoyment I so desperately needed: to see Clinton and Obama beat each other into a bloody pulp by convention time. Alas, it is not to be.

On the upside, it's good to know who the contenders are. For me, both McCain and Obama are bitter disappointments. McCain, with his maverick persona long worn off, represents a party that desperately needs to renew itself ideologically. Obama is the feel good candidate, whose lack of experience (and ideas) seems secondary to his natural gift as an orator and schmoozer. For people who are voting with their hearts instead of their brains, Obama is their man. I'm much too cynical to fall for Obama's charisma.

I'm not saying I'm not voting in November. I am. Just not for McCain or Obama.

Is Obama The Winner?

The consensus seems to be to declare Obama the winner since destiny, and a little math, is on his side. Consensus also seems to be for an Obama/Clinton ticket. I don't know if that's such a good idea. Clinton is petulant, vindictive, and, not to mention, ambitious. As vice president, she'll try to undermine Obama as much as she can. Yes, she's capable of that!

Obama's Albatross

Even with Obama's very vocal avowal of Rev. Wright, it's a link that will forever be cast in stone. After all, Rev. Wright has been Obama's pastor for some twenty odd years, right? Presumably, this is not the first time (or the second time) Rev. Wright has uttered such statements; and it definitely won't be his last.

Suffice it to say, this is very damaging to Obama, who was doing a good job of transcending race in this election, only to be taken down by a race-baiting preacher. Rev. Wright is the best thing to happen to Hillary Clinton and it showed in Pennsylvania

What Rev. Wright has said is no different than what white racists have said about blacks since Reconstruction.

Obama On A Roll While Clinton Flounders

Sen. Obama has swept Democratic primaries in Maryland, Virginia and Washington D.C. The results can be found on Yahoo’s political dashboard. It was no contest. Obama clobbered Clinton at each turn. As a result, Obama not only leads in the delegate count but also has momentum for upcoming elections being held next week in Wisconsin, and in Ohio and Texas on March 4th.

Why is Clinton faring so badly? She had, at the beginning, in almost insurmountable lead in the polls, but now is trailing behind Obama. Part of the reason, I believe, has to do with the fact that Obama has more charisma, and is a better speaker, than Clinton, whose skills are more attune to working behind the scenes. Another issue is that Clinton is perceived as an establishment candidate, a creature of Washington; while Obama is perceived as a genuine outsider, who is willing to shake things up. It doesn’t help, of course, that Clinton has a history of flip-flopping on key issues, like the war in Iraq.

"Super-Delegates" Are Key In Democratic Primary

This AFP article gives a good overview on “super-delegates,” who will likely play a key role in the Democratic primary, currently in a deadlock between Clinton and Obama. An excerpt:

With no clear winner after months of wooing voters, the tight race for the Democratic White House nomination may leave the choice between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama to "super-delegates."

The super-delegates are party leaders and lawmakers, including all Democratic members of Congress and former presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, as well as ex-vice president Al Gore.

If no candidate has a lock on the 2,025 delegates needed to secure the nomination before the party's convention in August, the 796 "super-delegates" would be decisive.

Unlike "pledged" delegates chosen through primaries and caucuses, super-delegates are free to vote for whomever they choose. Many have already promised to back one candidate or another, "and most of the others will at some point before the convention," said Michael Tanner, a political analyst with the Cato Institute.

Does anyone find this sordid process undemocratic? What is the point of even holding primaries if the the end result is solely left to these "super-delegates"? After all, no one elects them; and they are not answerable to anyone, making the whole system suspect in my eyes.

Nevertheless, if I had to bet money on who can make the system work, it would have to be the Clintons, who are more adept at working the backrooms than Obama, who is both inexperienced and more than naïve about such matters.

Super Tuesday Results: McCains Surges And Clinton Splits

Yahoo has a great interactive dashboard displaying the results of Super Tuesday that is worth checking out.

I say I was surprised by Mitt Romney’s very poor showing given how conservative media types like Rush Limbaugh were hammering McCain (and Huckabee) for not being a true conservative. Nevertheless, it seems many conservatives decided to stay home rather than vote. And the conservatives who did vote, mostly the evangelicals, voted for Huckabee instead. Don’t know if Romney’s Mormon faith had anything to do with, but Huckabee picked up some key Southern states (also known as the Bible belt) so it may have been a factor.

On the Democratic front, not surprisingly, no clear winner has emerged, both Barack and Clinton managed an even split. This one is going to be bloody one; and chances are good it won’t be decided until the convention.

Then There Were Two...

After Clinton and McCain won their respective Florida primaries, both Edwards and Giuliani have opted to drop out the race. I’m not really surprised by Giuliani’s announcement, since he staked his entire campaign on Florida, where he came in a distant third. I’m surprised, though, that Edwards has decided to call it quits since he has a very good chance of playing the spoiler; I figure he would at least stick it out after super Tuesday.

So why did they choose to quit?

Giuliani was a bundle of contradictions, who based his campaign solely on 9/11, which, naturally, made for a good story, but couldn’t be translated into a referendum for the presidency. And there was the question of his character: his divorces, his affairs, and his supposed Catholic convictions. That Giuliani didn’t see the conflicts, or chose to ignore them, did not bode well with social conservatives, and the religious right.

Edwards, on the other hand, should’ve done better. But when he came in third in South Carolina, supposedly his neck of the woods, Edwards knew he was in trouble. Florida was his last stand too, and like Giuliani, Edward lost big. Edwards has the natural gifts of being a great politicians, but unlike Obama, he doesn’t come off as smart and likable, more like arrogant and smarmy. More snake oil salesman, who he is, then a progressive, which he clearly isn’t. But given the see-saw campaign between Clinton and Barack, Edwards was a good position in influencing the outcome, making sure the leading candidates stuck to their Democratic principles; and, yes, even play the role of kingmaker at the Democratic National Convention in Denver.

Giuliani has pledged his support for McCain, who is clearly on a roll. As for Edwards, he’s being quiet for now, no doubt angling for a juicy role. Vice President, perhaps?

Hillary Clinton Not Getting Key Endorsements

Sen. Hillary Clinton’s chances of being the second “black” president (her husband, Bill Clinton, was the first) have been dashed after Toni Morrison gave her endorsement to Sen. Barack Obama. Not only that, now the Kennedy clan have also decided to endorse Barack Obama.

Are endorsements really effective in a presidential election? Does anyone really care what a writer like Toni Morrison thinks anymore? Most Americans consider artists, writers and Hollywood types to be on the fringe of politics; to be ignored and ridiculed, not to be taken seriously. And what of the Kennedys, a political family clearly in their twilight years? Ted Kennedy is viewed both as a liberal lion and a buffoon. Does his endorsement carry any weight?

Identity Politics Coming Home To Roost

Have been very busy of late: digging out of a snowstorm, busy at work (surprisingly!), and dealing with wife’s ear surgery. But I’m never too busy to comb the internet, looking for interesting stories like this:

Somewhat surprisingly, as the campaign has tightened, racial tensions have bubbled to the surface with the two camps exchanging accusations. Those tensions are reflected in this week’s polling data. Overall, Clinton and Obama are close nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. But, among white voters, Clinton leads 41% to 27%. Among African-American voters, Obama leads 66% to 16%.

The Democrats have always played the race card in elections, often with spectacular results. It’s all fine and dandy when using it against hapless Republicans, but now that a black man has a chance to win the Democratic nomination, is either Clinton or Obama going to play the race card? Knowing Hillary, she’ll use every weapon in her arsenal to win, including some good, old-fashion race baiting. Obama, to his credit, is not really playing the race angle, but who knows what will happen when finally faced with the prospect.

Political Punditry: Like Looking At Tea Leaves

The only thing I know is that political pundits—no matter how smart they are, or what experience they may have—came out looking like idiots after yesterday’s results from the New Hampshire primary, where they foolishly and prematurely declared Sen. Hillary Clinton politically dead after her poor showing in Iowa, and, not to mention, her misleading “poll” numbers.

Even a neophyte like myself knows Iowa is an unreliable prognosticator; yet the political pundits (you know who you are!) insisted that Obama Barack would take New Hampshire by double-digits. No doubt Barack still did well in New Hampshire, but if it proves anything: it’s going to be a tough primary season between Barack and Clinton (Edwards has no chance), each winning a handful of states, with none getting an outright victory.

It is increasingly looking like a very interesting Democratic National Convention in Denver. Hope it’s bloody!